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Running the Numbers for a Heist

So Crayla has a Stealth of +7.  According to the one source, guards (this one or this one) have perceptions in the +1 to +4 range which matches other places I have looked.  So given this, what is the probability of pulling off a heist?

Some aspects to consider:

  • How many guards will there be?
  • How many guards will actually get a perception check against Crayla?
  • What is an acceptable level of risk?
  • What is the likely reward?
If you check out the Opposed skill check reference sheet here, you can get the opposed skill check probabilities.

For Crayla, I am +6 to +3 better than the opposing check skill level:

+3 -- 60% chance of success
+4 -- 64% chance of success
+5 -- 68% chance of success
+6 -- 72% chance of success

However, each check is independent.  If the GM is fishing for failures by making me make multiple checks, the odds aren't as good:

Advantage 1 Check 2 Checks 3 Checks 4 Checks
+3 60% 36% 22% 13%
+4 64% 41% 36% 17%
+5 68% 46% 31% 21%
+6 72% 52% 37% 27%

In addition, I may need to make a disable device check against a locked object.

However, add in a potion of invisibility for a +20 to stealth:

+23 -- 100% chance of success
+24 -- 100% chance of success
+25 -- 100% chance of success
+26 -- 100% chance of success

And the table above becomes all 100% chance of success too.  Assuming I can get any payoff greater than the cost of the potion, the heist is a go.
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