Thursday, December 15, 2011

Revisiting Expected Damage

So after more thought I have decided to revisit expected damage.

Consider the case with a 20/x2 critical, which is reasonably standard.

Probability of Hit (No Critical) ~=  (20-(AC of target - attack of attacker))/20
Minimum is always 1/20, maximum is always 19/20

The probability of a critical hit is always 1/20

Mean Damage = (Max Damage + Min Damage)/2

Expected Total Damage = Prob of Hit * Mean Damage + Prob of Crit  * Mean Damage

In our 20/x2 case:

Expected Total Damage = Mean Damage * (21-(AC-Attack)/20


Consider 3 undead (+3 attack, 2d6+2 damage) attacking an AC 14 PC

Expected Total Damage = (14+4)/2 *(21-(14-3)/20 = 9*10/20 = 4.5

With 3 undead, this means expected damage of 3* 4.5 = 14 damage per round

If we ignore criticals, the answer would be only 12 damage per round, a 17% difference!


Generically we can expand the formula for any critical hit as follows:

Expected Total Damage = Mean Damage *((20+Critical Rolls*(Critical Damage Multiplier-1))-(AC-Attack))/20

Where Mean Damage = (Max Damage + Min Damage)/2
And Critical Rolls are the number of dice values for a critical (i.e. 18-20 => 3)
And Critical Damage Multiplier is factor that damage is multiplied by for a crit


Thursday, September 22, 2011

Tome of Horrors Complete

Yeah, I was one of the luck few to get the Tome of Horrors Complete bundle hardcover and PDF.  I saw it, I got it, and by the time I got home from work it was sold out. The best part is that I was able to download the rather large PDF already, and the content is really cool.  Demons, undead, planar beings, animals and plants, playable races, trainable creatures, templates... it is all good.

In fact, already in honor of this new addition (edition too! lol) in my hoard of Pathfinder Stuff, I already have a new adventure brewing.

There will have to be time on a ship, time in the jungle, time underground, time near a volcano, and traveling of the planes.

I can't wait.

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Comic Con


Chelsie gives the stormtroopers a thumbs up.  I should have known she wasn't a rebel.


Krista goes undercover as a stormtrooper.  Aren't you kind of short for a stormtrooper?

Sarah is captured by the empire.

Krista saves Leia.

And so does her friend Kiersten.

Chelsie too

Sarah too

And Veronica too

Veronica is definitely too short to be a stormtrooper.

Chelsie is captures as a rebel spy. 

Sarah and Darth Vader join forces. 

Veronica also gets captures as a rebel spy.  


Turns out she and the empire are old pals.

Highlight of the con:  meeting the creator of Ghostrider!

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Battletech

So tonight we tried playing battletech.  I didn't remember how complicated the rules are, yet how very reasonable they seem while playing.

We played for an over an hour and got through the rules and two full rounds of combat with 4 players each with two mechs.  I ruled out modifiers for moving, terrain, and eliminated all 'hand-to-hand' style combat for simplicity.  It was just move, announce, fire for damage, calc heat.

Sarah hid her mechs behinds some trees.  Veronica barely got off a single shot.

Chelsie and I blasted each other.

Then after we played a couple of rounds I announced the 'fun' part I remembered as a kid:  not only can you battle the mechs versus each other, there are also rules for building your own.  Chelsie and Veronica seemed interested.  Sarah was bored with the whole game.

I suspect we'll try to play again sometime soon and see how it goes then.